Geopolitical Risk

Salma
Khamlichi

Analyst — MENA & Francophone Africa

Energy Security Sanctions Regimes OSINT Due Diligence Arabic • French • English Field Experience

Geopolitical risk researcher with field experience in fragile state operations and native Arabic and French fluency. MA Diplomacy & Global Politics, University of Westminster. IOM Burundi, 2024.

London, UK khamlichi1704@gmail.com LinkedIn
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01 — Work

Selected
Portfolio

Country Risk Brief
March 2026
Region MENA / Iran

Iran Post-Khamenei: Succession Risk and Hydrocarbon Leverage

Consulting-style risk brief analysing the geopolitical and commercial implications of Iran's post-Khamenei succession. Examines factional dynamics within the IRGC and clerical establishment, hydrocarbon leverage as a foreign policy instrument, sanctions exposure across three transition scenarios, and external actor positioning — with particular attention to Gulf state and Chinese interests.

MENA Energy Security Sanctions Scenario Analysis Arabic Sources
Download Brief (PDF)
Quantitative Dataset
March 2026
Region Gulf States Period 2000–2024

Saudi Arabia vs Iran: Military Expenditure and Oil Rents, 2000–2024

Comparative dataset examining the relationship between hydrocarbon dependency and military expenditure intensity across two major rentier states over 25 years. Constructed from SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (constant 2023 USD) and World Bank World Development Indicators. Supports the rentier state thesis that oil rents systematically enable and sustain militarised governance.

Quantitative Gulf States SIPRI World Bank WDI Rentier State Theory

Key Findings

  • Saudi average annual military spend: $62.6bn vs Iran's $5.9bn — a 10:1 ratio over the period
  • Saudi military spending averaged 8.7% of GDP vs Iran's 2.5%, indicating structurally higher militarisation relative to economic size
  • Saudi oil rents averaged 36.3% of GDP vs Iran's 2.1% — demonstrating fundamentally different hydrocarbon dependency
  • Strong positive correlation observed between oil rent levels and military expenditure intensity, both cross-sectionally and across time
Military expenditure absolute

Absolute expenditure (USD millions)

Military % GDP

Military spend as % of GDP

Oil rents % GDP

Oil rents as % of GDP

Download Dataset (XLSX)
02 — About

Background
& Expertise

Geopolitical risk researcher with a regional focus on MENA energy security and Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa, combining academic rigour with field-level operational experience.

My MA dissertation at Westminster examined how Western energy diplomacy and sanctions regimes have shaped militarised governance in hydrocarbon states — a question I approach through primary Arabic sources, quantitative datasets, and structured scenario analysis. This work sits at the intersection of political economy, security studies, and commercial risk.

Prior to my MA, I served as a Programme and Research Assistant with IOM in Bujumbura, Burundi, conducting OSINT and HUMINT research in a fragile operating environment and producing risk assessments under operational constraints. That field experience shapes how I think about risk: as something that is felt on the ground before it appears in a dataset.

I am trilingual in Arabic, French, and English — with source-level access to MENA and Francophone African media, legal registers, and primary documentation.

Education MA Diplomacy & Global Politics, University of Westminster (2025)
BA Journalism & Communications, ISIC Rabat (2024)
Field IOM Bujumbura, Burundi — Programme & Research Assistant (2024)
Languages Arabic (native)  •  French (fluent)  •  English (fluent)
Specialisms MENA energy security  •  Sanctions regimes  •  OSINT & due diligence  •  Francophone Africa  •  Rentier state political economy
Location London, UK  •  Available from mid-May 2026
03 — CV

Curriculum Vitæ

Geopolitical Risk Researcher  •  MENA & Francophone Africa  •  Updated April 2026

Download CV (PDF)